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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."