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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.